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Understanding Coincidence

Many people have a legitimate fear of numbers, equations, and probability. This “math anxiety” keeps much of the lay public from ever willfully learning about mathematics; indeed, ignorance in this regard is often touted. Commonly used phrases like “I’m not a numbers person” and “I hate math” betray that fact that a good portion of society does not understand math and consciously avoids it.

Comprehending this deficit and doing something about it should be taken up within our school system; we should engage students with math early, often, and more rigorously.

But mathematical illiteracy plays a role in perpetuating not just equation ignorance, but pseudoscience. Not understanding just how much of your life is governed by randomness generates many a fallacious belief about the way that the world works. It should be clearly understood that randomness creates coincidence. That is to say, if there were no coincidences in life, we could speculate that some outside [...]

From James Randi Educational Foundation
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/1646-understanding-coincidence.html
3/9/2012 1:00:00 AM
Search rank: 352

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Hitchens get waterboarded

Torture gets the truth out of the subject every time, too. Oh, that's right.... it doesn't!

From AFA Forums
http://www.atheistfoundation.org.au/forums/showthread.php?t=9999&goto=newpost
5/4/2011 1:27:34 PM
Search rank: 335

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Trinity University Lecture on Biodiversity

San Antonio Skeptics

What: Trinity University Presents Pulitzer Prize Recipient to Discuss Biodiversity

When: Monday, October 25, 2010 7:30 PM

Where: Trinity University Laurie Auditorium
One Trinity Place
San Antonio , TX 78212
210-999-8201

Edward O. Wilson, two-time Pulitzer Prize recipient, will present the Trinity University DeCoursey Lecture for the 2010-2011 academic year at 7:30 p.m. Monday, Oct. 25, in Laurie Auditorium. The title of his talk is ?Biodiversity and the Future of Life.? His presentation is free and open to the public.

"Wilson?s Law:" If we save the living environment (the diversity of life) we will also automatically save the physical environment (threatened by habitat destruction and pollution), because the first cannot be done without the latter. [...]

From Skeptics upcoming events
http://www.meetup.com/San-Antonio-Skeptics/calendar/15203899/
10/24/2010 3:39:34 AM
Search rank: 331

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Japan quake, tsunami, nuke news 02

Another sequence of headlines and news reports, continuation of THIS POST:

Harmful Radiation Leak After Japan Explosion


From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/6ApxRuW8ePU/japan_quake_tsunami_nuke_news_1.php
3/16/2011 2:41:53 AM
Search rank: 326

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Opening passage of the "Thinking Traps" chapter in Tricks of the Mind by Derren Brown - this blew me away so I had to share.

"Imagine there is a terrible disease reported, and although it affects only one in ten thousand people, it is absolutely lethal. You are worried about it, so you decide to undergo a medical test to see if you have the disease. Now, no medical test is ever 100 per cent accurate, but your doctor explains that this one is known to be 99 per cent accurate, regardless of whether or not you have the disease (in other words, it will deliver a correct positive or negative result 99 per cent of the time). You decide to take the test. You're a little nervous, but you think it's a sensible thing to do. A blood sample is taken, and you're told the results will be sent to you in the post.

A week later the envelope arrives from the testing centre. You open it up, and read the contents. Staring you in the face is the answer you dreaded: the results are positive. The test has indicated that you have the lethal disease. You are devastated.

And you are [...]

From Skeptic's Subreddit
http://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/j37q2/opening_passage_of_the_thinking_traps_chapter_in/
7/30/2011 12:06:33 AM
Search rank: 315

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TRC #136: Medical Science Reliability + Is The Cookie Monster a Vegetarian? + Does 1 = 0.9999...?

Darren goes over a study that explains why medical advice may not be as reliable as we would hope. Adam responds to people complaining on the internet about Sesame Street changing the Cookie Monster character.

From The Reality Check
http://therealitycheck.libsyn.com/trc-136-medical-science-reliability-is-the-cookie-monster-a-vegetarian-does-1-0-9999-
4/18/2011 2:47:55 PM
Search rank: 311

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McChrystal will resign

According to reports.

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/lJsU51W4Gg4/mcchrystal_will_resign.php
6/23/2010 2:21:36 PM
Search rank: 305

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On a scale of Three Mile Island to Chernobyl, where are we now?

A very good stab at addressing the question by Rachel Maddow:

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/KQRm43iMB98/on_a_scale_of_three_mile_islan.php
3/18/2011 2:44:47 AM
Search rank: 305

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Strange Creatures For Real! No, Really, for Real! (Including GoatSucker Footage)

First, strange creature passes in front of BP Oil Spill Cam. Click here to help identify it. Hat TIp Mad Lolscientist.

Second, "Chupacabras in Texas?"

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/qaFG1jyveSI/strange_creatures_for_real_no.php
7/15/2010 6:31:18 AM
Search rank: 305

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Goodbye false balance over vaccines and autism! May you stay gone!

I realize that Chris Mooney is a polarizing figure here on the ol' ScienceBlogs, but I have to give him props for doing a damned fine job handling questions about vaccines, autism, and Andrew Wakefield's utterly discredited 1998 Lancet study, which was retracted by the Lancet's editors last week:

From Respectful Insolence
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/scienceblogs/insolence/~3/Ylw1d5X5z3k/goodbye_false_balance.php
2/17/2010 6:19:17 PM
Search rank: 300

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Because that’s what Jesus would do, right?

Feel the Christian love:

#bbpBox_66439611425107968 a { text-decoration:none; color:#009999; }#bbpBox_66439611425107968 a:hover { text-decoration:underline; }@FlyingFree333 The only reason #Atheists are growing is because #Christians allow you to exist. We start should burning you guys alive againabout 6 hours ago via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite@Walken4GOPChet Walken

That’s your typical GOP supporter these days. Wishing for the gold old days when they could just kill you.

From Stupid Evil Bastard
http://stupidevilbastard.com/2011/05/because-thats-what-jesus-would-do-right/
5/7/2011 1:45:31 AM
Search rank: 296

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Andrew Wakefield: Struck off!

It's been a long time comin'
It's goin' to be a Long Time Gone.
And it appears to be a long,
appears to be a long,
appears to be a long
time, yes, a long, long, long ,long time before the dawn.
- from "Long Time Gone" by Crosby, Stills & Nash

Oh, happy day!

It's finally happened, more than six years after investigative reporter Brian Deer first reported Wakefield's massive conflicts of interest and dubious activities related to his "research" suggesting a link between the measles strain in the MMR vaccine and inflammation of the gut in autistic children, nearly three years after the start of the British General Medical Council's hearings into anti-vaccine hero Andrew Wakefield's fitness to practice, nearly a year and a half after solid evidence that Andrew Wakefield had

From Respectful Insolence
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/scienceblogs/insolence/~3/_bnO1KGYSzw/andrew_wakefield_struck_off.php
5/25/2010 3:00:00 AM
Search rank: 292

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Stepping back: Lies, damned lies, and...science-based medicine?

Note: Grant writing ruled again this weekend; so I took this post, which first appeared elsewhere, and decided to revise and repost it. It seems appropriate, given what I've been discussing lately. Enjoy, and hopefully there'll be something new tomorrow..

I've been complaining a lot about a certain journalist lately, specifically one named David Freedman. Before the most recent paean to unscientific medicine written by him, he wrote another article. The article, which was trumpeted by Tara Parker-Pope, came under the heading of "Brave Thinkers" and is entitled

From Respectful Insolence
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/scienceblogs/insolence/~3/8E_hbbAxLIM/lies_damned_lies_andscience-based_medici.php
6/20/2011 9:00:00 PM
Search rank: 290

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And that's why we call them IDiots

Joe Felsenstein has a guest post on the Panda's Thumb in which he dissects a totally bogus statistical game some intelligent design creationist was playing. In a few short paragraphs he shows clearly and plainly how wrong the creationist is, which is why he is Joe Felsenstein, I guess.

Meanwhile, the creationists go on imperturbably, completely failing to recognize that they've been cut off at the knees. It's hilarious.

For further hilarity, Felsenstein quotes an amusing revelation from the gang at Uncommon Descent:

At UD we have many brilliant ID apologists, and they continue to mount what I perceive as increasingly indefensible assaults on the creative powers of the Darwinian mechanism of random errors filtered by natural selection.

Yes, they are increasingly indefensible. When will they realize it?

From Pharyngula
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/scienceblogs/pharyngula/~3/I8B4GpXPuKU/and_thats_why_we_call_them_idi.php
6/16/2011 11:36:34 PM
Search rank: 289

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Letter to the Chairman of Trustees

I have sent a letter to Mr. David Murphy, Chairman of Trustees of St. Augustine's Priory School Limited. It was sent by recorded delivery on Thursday 7th April. The Royal Mail Tracking Service indicates that he signed for receipt of it on Saturday 9th April. The text of the letter is given below, with minor deletions indicated using square brackets. Although I gave both my telephone number and my email address in the letter, I have not yet received any reply.


Dear Mr. Murphy,

Safeguarding at St. Augustine’s Priory School

On 5th April, I received a visit from the police, concerning a complaint of harassment that had been made against me by Mrs Gumley Mason, specifically concerning name-calling in some of the postings by contributors to the blog.

There was no need for such a complaint. If [...]

From Confessions of a skeptic
http://scepticalthoughts.blogspot.com/2011/04/letter-to-chairman-of-trustees.html
4/14/2011 5:00:00 AM
Search rank: 287

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NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 1)

As a recent SkS post by Dana Nuccitelli has pointed out global warming hasn't stopped, despite a recent lull in global surface temperatures. The oceans, which are the main heat sink for global warming, have scarcely skipped a beat in soaking up heat. The hiatus in global surface temperatures appears to simply be a reflection of natural variability, principally the exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. But we shouldn't expect this to last much longer. Eventually that ocean heat buried in deeper layers will come back to the surface, and we'll experience the warm phase of this natural cool/warm (La Niña/El Niño-based) cycle.

As if to reinforce this very point, a [...]

From Skeptical Science
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1236
1/26/2012 5:30:20 PM
Search rank: 284

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The Top Dinosaur Discoveries of 2010 - Brian Switek - Smithsonian.com

Via Not Exactly Rocket Science


A restoration of Anchiornis by Michael DiGiorgio, showing the color patterns detected in the dinosaur's fossil feathers. This was arguably the most important dinosaur discovery of 2010.

2010 has been a good year for dinosaurs. Numerous new species have been named, long-awaited conference proceedings have been published, new techniques for studying the past have been devised, and scientists finally allowed us to answer one of the most confounding questions in dinosaur science. There was so much new dinosaur science that it was impossible to cover it all here (in fact, an accepted manuscript describing

From RichardDawkins.net - All Aggregated News Content
http://richarddawkins.net/articles/572518-the-top-dinosaur-discoveries-of-2010
1/3/2011 11:41:18 AM
Search rank: 283

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Republicans = Dumb on Kagan

Visit [...]

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/x4rOTKccsto/republicans_dumb_on_kagan.php
5/17/2010 5:38:30 AM
Search rank: 282

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Primary day!

Visit [...]

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/1tIIanuPlvU/primary_day.php
5/19/2010 3:25:11 PM
Search rank: 282

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This year, primaries matter.

And so does twitter, apparently.

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/xLGastcLZ-I/this_year_primaries_matter.php
5/19/2010 3:23:19 PM
Search rank: 282

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Sue Lowden is against chickens.

buk buk buk

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/OgEg6WKUnu8/sue_lowden_is_against_chickens.php
5/21/2010 7:21:28 AM
Search rank: 282

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Wikileaks and Anon_Op

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/weJencFlU_s/wikileaks_and_anon_op.php
12/10/2010 11:23:01 AM
Search rank: 282

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Snow and Global Warming

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/huEksgc3V_k/snow_and_global_warming.php
12/31/2010 2:19:15 AM
Search rank: 282

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Rachel Maddow Puts Rand Paul in Bag, Slowly Rolls Over Him

Go pour yourself a cup of coffee, sit back, relax and watch this PolitiPorn. Take notes. Discuss.

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/pW8BR6mWOkk/rachel_maddow_puts_rand_paul_i.php
5/25/2010 2:41:56 AM
Search rank: 281

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Argumentum ad hominem vulpes

It turns out, Sponge Bob Square Pants Roolz. But never mind that. Keep focused on the racism, it is actually important:

From Greg Laden's Blog
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GregLadensBlog/~3/qTN5YJaz6H8/argumentum_ad_hominem_vulpes.php
7/30/2010 1:26:48 AM
Search rank: 281

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